Consumer Confidence Edges Up in 2026 — But Will It Move the Housing Market?
South Florida real estate has always been closely tied to consumer sentiment. When buyers feel secure about their income, employment and long-term stability, they make bigger financial decisions. When uncertainty lingers, hesitation follows.
In February, the national consumer confidence index ticked up to 91.2, improving modestly from January’s revised 89 reading. While that rebound is welcome news after a sharp dip, the broader picture remains complicated. Short-term expectations remain below 80 for the 13th straight month — a level often associated with recession concerns.
So the real question for homeowners, buyers, and sellers across South East Florida is this: Is slightly better confidence enough to meaningfully impact the housing market?
Let’s break down what’s happening and what it could mean locally.
A Closer Look at Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index measures how Americans feel about current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months.
February’s reading of 91.2 reflects a modest recovery. However, the expectations component — which gauges outlook on income, business conditions, and employment — remains subdued at 72.
Why does that matter?
Historically, readings below 80 in the expectations index can signal caution among consumers. When people feel uncertain about the future, large purchases — especially homes — tend to slow.
At the same time, Americans’ assessments of their current situation dipped slightly. Inflation mentions remain elevated, and discussions around trade policy and politics have increased.
In short, consumers feel somewhat better — but not confident enough to be aggressive.
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Explore Homes by CityThe Labor Market: Stable, But Slower
Economists describe the labor market as “low hire, low fire.” Businesses are neither expanding hiring aggressively nor cutting staff dramatically.
January saw the addition of 130,000 nonfarm jobs, stronger than expected. However, job growth in 2025 has slowed significantly compared to 2024’s robust pace.
Total job gains in 2025 stand at just over 580,000 — roughly one-fourth of the prior year’s pace.
For real estate, employment stability matters more than rapid job growth. If households feel secure in their jobs, they’re more likely to consider buying or selling.
Right now, the labor market appears stable — but not booming.
Spending Intentions: Big-Ticket Items See Uptick
Interestingly, February’s data showed increased plans to purchase big-ticket items such as:
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Used vehicles
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Furniture
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Televisions
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Smartphones
These purchases often precede housing activity. When consumers start replacing cars and upgrading furniture, it can indicate improving financial comfort.
However, home-buying expectations remained largely unchanged.
That suggests consumers may feel better about moderate purchases — but still cautious about committing to real estate.
Economic Growth Slows, But Doesn’t Stall
U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in the final quarter of last year. That slowdown followed two strong quarters of 4.4% and 3.8%.
The deceleration reflects:
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A temporary federal government shutdown
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Reduced consumer spending
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Ongoing effects of higher interest rates
Despite the slowdown, the economy continues to grow.
For housing, modest growth is preferable to contraction. A steady, if slower, economy can support gradual market improvement.
Mortgage Rates and Sentiment
Consumer confidence and mortgage rates often interact.
When rates rise, confidence can dip. When rates stabilize or fall, confidence tends to recover gradually.
Mortgage rates have recently hovered near 6%, down from prior peaks but still elevated compared to pandemic-era lows.
For buyers in South East Florida, rates in the 6% range are not prohibitive — but they do require careful financial planning.
If consumer confidence continues trending upward alongside stable rates, we may see incremental improvement in housing activity.
South East Florida: A Different Dynamic
National sentiment doesn’t always translate directly to South Florida real estate.
Our region benefits from:
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Ongoing migration from high-tax states
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International buyer activity
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Strong tourism economy
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No state income tax
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Cash-heavy luxury market
Luxury buyers, in particular, are less dependent on consumer sentiment surveys and mortgage rate changes.
In Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County, high-end transactions continue to show resilience.
Mid-market buyers, however, are more sensitive to confidence shifts.
Buyers: Watching and Waiting
Many potential buyers are in observation mode.
They are asking:
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Will rates drop further?
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Will home prices soften?
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Will job growth remain stable?
Slightly improved confidence may reduce anxiety — but it hasn’t yet triggered urgency.
For buyers who have been sidelined, the current environment offers:
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More balanced inventory
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Slightly improved affordability
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Negotiation opportunities in certain segments
The key question is timing versus readiness. Confidence is rising slowly — but decisions remain measured.
Sellers: Managing Expectations
Sellers should recognize that while consumer confidence has improved, it is not exuberant.
This means:
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Overpricing can lead to stagnation
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Strategic presentation is essential
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Pricing alignment with current demand matters
In condo markets with elevated inventory, buyer hesitation can amplify competition.
In single-family segments, stability remains stronger — but buyer selectivity has increased.
Sellers who understand the cautious mindset of buyers can adjust strategy accordingly.
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Inventory levels across South East Florida vary by property type.
Condos in certain counties show elevated supply, creating buyer leverage.
Single-family homes remain closer to balanced market conditions.
If confidence continues its gradual improvement, modest increases in buyer activity may absorb some inventory.
However, a sudden surge appears unlikely without stronger economic signals.
Inflation and Household Psychology
Inflation continues to shape consumer psychology.
Even if wage growth remains steady, elevated prices for essentials like groceries and insurance impact discretionary spending confidence.
Housing decisions are influenced not just by mortgage rates — but by overall cost-of-living stability.
If inflation trends downward further in 2026, confidence could strengthen more meaningfully.
Until then, cautious optimism defines the landscape.
The Long View for Homeownership
Consumer confidence tends to move in cycles.
Historically, housing markets do not require extremely high confidence levels to function — they require stability.
Right now, stability is present.
What’s missing is enthusiasm.
For long-term homeowners in South East Florida, current conditions represent normalization rather than crisis.
For buyers, patience and preparation may be rewarded.
For sellers, strategic pricing and presentation remain essential.
Is It Enough?
So, is slightly better consumer confidence enough to move the housing market?
Probably not dramatically — at least not yet.
However, incremental improvement matters.
Housing markets rarely shift overnight. They evolve gradually as:
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Employment stabilizes
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Rates settle
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Inflation cools
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Confidence rebuilds
If February’s uptick marks the beginning of a sustained upward trend, we may see more meaningful housing activity by late 2026.
If confidence stalls again, the market may remain steady but subdued.
What We’re Watching
As marketing director for The Kull Group in South East Florida, the indicators we monitor closely include:
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Consumer expectations index
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Mortgage rate trends
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Job growth stability
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Local inventory levels
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Migration patterns
Right now, none signal dramatic change — but none signal downturn either.
The environment remains balanced, cautious, and gradually stabilizing.
Final Thoughts
Consumer confidence edged higher in February. It’s a positive signal — but not a transformative one.
The South East Florida housing market remains resilient due to regional strengths, cash activity, and migration trends.
For buyers, slightly improved confidence may provide reassurance — but decisions remain deliberate.
For sellers, patience and preparation remain essential.
In today’s market, steady progress beats sudden swings.
And for now, confidence is improving — one small step at a time.
Real Estate Resources for South Florida
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About the Authors
Chris and Sue Kull are South Florida real estate professionals with more than three decades of experience helping buyers, sellers, and property owners navigate the housing market throughout Palm Beach County and surrounding communities.
Their work focuses on providing clear information, local market insight, and practical guidance so clients can make confident real estate decisions. Over the years they have built a trusted network of industry professionals—including lenders, inspectors, contractors, and legal specialists—to support every stage of the real estate process.
You can explore additional resources, community guides, and real estate tools at www.TheKullGroup.com.
If you have questions about buying, selling, or understanding the local real estate market, you can reach out through our contact page.